firing up the crystal ball.

My prediction for tomorrow:


(Map courtesy of RealClear Politics, via Scalzi.)


22 thoughts on “firing up the crystal ball.

  1. OrangeneckInNY says:

    I think PA and Ohio will still come out for McCain.

  2. OrangeneckInNY says:

    I also think New York, for the first time in 50 years, is going to go red.

  3. Marko says:

    I don’t think there’s even a slight chance for McCain to snag NY.

  4. Jay G. says:

    I think your map is entirely too optimistic, Marko.

    McCain’s going to lose FL, NC, and possibly IN.

    Hope I’m wrong, but that’s how I’d bet.

  5. Jay G. says:

    And NY went red in 1984, BTW. Minnesota was the only state in the union to vote for Walter Mondale…


  7. and mw, if you could personally visit your four delegates up theah in new hampshah and tell them they’ll have to change their license plates if the o takes the prize…”live for free and die”…?

  8. theflatwhite says:

    It will be a cold day in hell when Indiana votes for a Marxist.

  9. crankylitprof says:

    I wouldn’t count PA out just yet. The comments about coal over the weekend put a hurt on him. Plus, my county (Chester) went Dem for Hilary, but there are a ton of PUMA’s who are unhappy with how she was treated during the primary, and are voting Mac just to spite the One.

  10. Jeff says:

    “I also think New York, for the first time in 50 years, is going to go red.”

    That’s some serious wishful thinking. The only outcome that’s truly off the table is a McCain landslide. I’m expecting Obama in a squeaker, but neither a very narrow McCain win nor an Obama win in the low to mid 300s would surprise me.

  11. IZinterrogator says:

    With the whole Obama-coal industry revelation over the weekend, I’m betting OH and PA go red.

  12. Heh.
    That map’s WAY too blue… 13 states, max.

  13. George says:

    I think PA for McCain….and Marko is right on NC. We have 10 McCain signs for every one Obie sign here.

  14. Breda says:

    Ohio’s going to be for McCain.

  15. Ish says:

    My mental map is moreorless identical to Marko’s (although I will be very happy to be proven wrong), however I disagree with him about New Mexico. I have no hard evidence or even a poll, but I just can’t picture it….

  16. BryanP says:

    I’m guessing your numbers are too optimistic for McCain. My bet is Obama gets at least 350 electoral votes, with McCain coming in with 185-190.

  17. Cathy says:

    I don’t agree, I think McCain is going to pull it off. Obama is not carrying enough of the Democrats. McCain has pulled a large portion of the Jewish vote his way. I think the media will be surprised when McCain pulls it off.

  18. Jason says:

    [i]Obama is not carrying enough of the Democrats.[/i]

    Thats for lulz… rite?

  19. Rick in NY says:

    My prediction is that the people of the United States are going to be screwed by whomever is the next president. Period, full stop.

    Orangeneck, don’t know from where in NY you hail, but quite simply, the NYC vote is the majority of NY, and the “O” has it… which is unfortunate for those of us who live in the rest of the Empire State.

  20. dpatten says:

    I’m afraid Florida, where I live, is going blue. I live in reliably red central Florida, yet, to my eyes it appears as though Obama is going to pull it off here.

    We have almost a million new people here since 2000 and most of them are economic refugees from the rust-belt blue states who vote reliably (D).

    I’ve never figured out why people leave one area of the country because the governmental policies have made it unliveable, then when they arrive in another area they begin making it into a clone of the hole of despair they just left. “That isn’t how we did things in Mass!”

  21. drstrangegun says:

    I’m not optimistic. This is why I just finished buying about $2000 worth of AR and AK parts on credit.

    However… if the nation goes blue, I have all my bits before the prices skyrocket (even with no ban, just panic buying). If the nation goes red…. what am I complaining about, I have $2K in AK parts to play with 😀

  22. Marko says:

    It will be a cold day in hell when Indiana votes for a Marxist.

    That explains the dude with the hooves and the pitchfork buying a pair of skates at L.L.Bean in West Leb this morning…

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